All Hope Lost

Monday, January 01, 2007

Qoute Me On This

People are born as drooling, babbling idiots.

Over the course of years, most of them learn not to drool.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

Poker Politics

You would think that poker players would be strategic thinkers, but they're not.

Recently a ban on internet poker was inserted into a must-pass port security bill. This was not the first attempt to ban internet gaming. Previously the House had passed H.R. 4411 (official vote). Luckily, the November, 2006 election was coming up and poker players would have an opportunity to make their voices heard. It was hard to say which Senators were good and which were bad when the vote was over port security.

But with 4411 the members of the House had mostly taken clear stands. This is so obvious I shouldn't have to say it: vote for people who vote for you, vote against people who vote against you.

Instead, what would happen quickly became sickeningly clear. As I looked around different poker web sites and forums I found very few people that said they were going to vote. I could not find one single person that had said they were voting in the Congressional race based upon how their Representative voted on 4411. Most were like Cardplayer Magazine CEO, Barry Schulman, who wrote a blog entry advocating a "vote out the Republicans" strategy. (See also his followup article.) Some writers said they were voting only for Libertarians.

These were not optimal strategies. A better strategy would be to vote against Republicans and Democrats who voted against poker, and vote for Republicans and Democrats who voted for poker. Let me spell it out. Republicans voted 201-17 against poker, almost a 12 to 1 ratio. Democrats voted 115-76 against poker, about 3 to 2. So voting out a bad Republican will result in an unknown Democrat voting, on average, 3:2 against poker, which is better than a Republican 100% against poker. But voting out a good Republican with a vote 100% for poker will also result in an unknown Democrat 3:2 against poker. Voting out any Democrat will result in an unknown Republican 12:1 against poker.

So Cardplayer Magazine would lock in the Democrats: 115 against, 76 for, 10 not voting (unknown votes), and would make 234 more seats Democratic (unknown). The 244 unknown Democrats would vote an estimated average of 147 to 97 against poker, for a total estimate of 262 to 173 against poker.

An improved strategy is to keep all good votes: 76 Democrats and 17 Republicans, and switch parties on 115 Dems and 201 Reps, and make any leftover miscellaneous votes Democratic, resulting in 93 for, 115 unknown Republicans (estimated 106 to 9 against), and 227 unknown Democrats (estimated at 137 to 90 against) for a total estimate of 243 to 192 against.

The improved strategy sounds only a little better until you realize that voting out every member who voted against poker would have a profound impact on the thinking of the new members who replaced them. I would have liked to vote out at least 1/3 each of the bad Dems and Reps, and kept every good one.

So what happened? Well, I got results from CNN last week, and I'm tired of counting, and I could have easily miscounted, but when I checked Mr. Schulman got his wish and not one bad Democrat running for re-election had been voted out, but fortunately neither had any good Democrats. Fortunately no good Republicans were defeated, and bad Republicans were 163 still in office to 20 defeated (almost 11% defeated). Some members had not run for re-election and some races were still undecided. Still in office are 271 known bad votes and 86 known good ones, plus 46 unknown Democrats and 22 unknown Republicans.

Everyone says that the election was all about Republicans versus Democrats, which it was. Poker players have to point out when they lobby that every defeated Republican voted against poker, and not one member of either party who voted for poker was defeated.

Updated Election Results

There were nine close elections that weren't included in my count previously. This weekend I went back and checked, and, unfortunately, two good Republicans were defeated. So, it is no longer true that no member of either party who voted for poker was defeated. However, five more good Republicans and two more good Democrats squeezed back into office.

The total still in office now stands at 271 known bad votes and 93 known good ones, plus 48 unknown Democrats and 22 unknown Republicans. My total accounts for 434 out of 435 representatives, so I must have missed one somewhere

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

History of Lost Island

I've been putting this off for a long time, but have to get my theory up before the new season of "Lost" starts tonight. There is a lot of stuff online about the series, so probably nothing here will be news, but I've spent like 20 minutes total looking at the stuff online and didn't see this anywhere.

As far as we know the history of people on the island starts with the ship, the "Black Rock." By the way, it seems like some characters give good clues and others give bad clues. Hurley gives good clues. At the end of one episode he was drying his clothes over a fire and wanted to be told when they found a laundry. Of course, they found a laundry in the hatch later.

But, back to the Black Rock. When they saw chained skeletons in it Kate gave a bad clue that it was a slave ship. I saw online where someone said that the timeline was wrong and it was more likely a prison ship headed for Australia. My theory is like the Mutiny on the Bounty that lead to the settlement of Pitcairn Island. But regardless of which theory is right we know one fact: there were two groups on the ship - the people in chains and the people not in chains.

That's right, there are two groups of "Others."

The Others sent a spy, Ethan Rom, (I'm writing this offline, so can't check my names and other facts) into the group of survivors. He was an expert fighter. All of them seem to be. You don't have a group of expert fighters unless they have to fight someone.

Also, when Jack chased Michael, but was confronted by the bearded Other, Jack challenged him over sending a spy into their group. He looked at Jack blankly until Jack said the name Rom. My first thought was that the blank look was because the bearded man didn't know anything about the spy because he was from the other group. But then I decided that he was trying to figure out if Jack knew that one of the survivors was working with the Others. I know who and why the person is helping the others, but will skip it in this post.

Another hint that there were two groups of survivors were the next people that we know of to come to the island. When Jack found the two bodies at the spring he opened a mojo bag that contained two stones, one white and one black. I believe that the male and female bodies were laid out in death because their child left them there. Yes, the others were stealing children 40 years ago. The story of Mr. Ecco explains why they have been stealing children, to recruit new members for their "gangs." The "white stone" group also believes they are saving the children from the "black stone" group.

When we discovered that the hatch was a bunker there were two likely origins for it. Either it was Japanese from World War II, or it was from the Cold War era, either Russian or American. Hurley gave another good clue when he said it was like something from World War II, only newer. The fact that all of the writing inside is English makes it American. Add to this the fact that the "tail section" survivors discovered a US Army knife on one of Them.

Perhaps the military discovered the island during WW II and used it during the Cold War because the magnetic properties hid it from satellites. At any rate they certainly must have had problems with the Hostiles stealing items, and probably people. They put the word "quarantine" on the inside of the hatch and gave their people some story to keep them away from the beautiful tropical island and in their bunkers.

When the Army finally abandoned the island Alvar Hanso, a munitions dealer with obvious military ties learned of this government surplus property and bought it. The old computers came with the deal, which explains the lockdown when the plane with food flew over. When an unidentified plane, possibly an enemy bomber, flies over the missile launch site, then the blast doors are programmed to come down and all countdowns are halted. If the base survives the bombing then they can launch their nuclear missile from the silo (the thick concrete that Jack and Sayid found).

Then Hanso moved in his group and then the French ship sank and then Oceanic 815 crashed. There have been some other people coming to the island, such as the sailboat, the balloon, and others we haven't learned of yet (perhaps a movie crew built the ruins of a statue with 4 toes).

And that is the history of Lost Island.

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Full Tilt Fantasy Poker

Who sets up systems like this?

I went to Full Tilt Poker and noticed a link to a fantasy poker contest covering the World Series of Poker events running now. Since this seemed to be a Full Tilt event I expected to go to a link that looked like fulltiltpoker.com/contest. However, the link was to contest.blastpromo.com which seemed to be a separate site. But Full Tilt is a reputable site with a stable of poker celebrity endorsers, led by Howard Lederer, and if Full Tilt is involved with this site then it ought to be safe.

And it probably is safe, but they could really make an effort to appear safer.

Anyway, the details of the contest looked really interesting. Pick 15 poker pros from their extensive list and every time one of them made cash in a WSOP event you would get a corresponding number of points. There were a few more details, but that was the gist of it. Fantasy contest top finishers would win entry into freeroll poker tournaments and items, like Full Tilt caps, from the Full Tilt store.

Now, by this time I had already noticed another safety concern. To use the site you had to log in, but did they want you to register a name and password with this new site, or were you to use your name and password from Full Tilt Poker, where presumably you would have an account and a way to transfer money? Even so, it is probably safe since it would be difficult for someone to crack, for instance, a Neteller account number and password.

Interested by the competition, and not overly concerned yet, I looked at the rules. At least into August, while the WSOP is still going on, the rules should still be available at this site. Wait, in the section "DETERMINATION AND NOTIFICATION OF WINNERS" the winner "may be required" to sign, notarize, and fax an affadavit, along with a copy of a driver's license or other government identification, plus a social security number?

Let me put this in terms of what you bet versus what you might win. If you give someone everything they would need to steal your identity: a Social Security number, a photo ID, a phone number, and a valid signature, in exchange you might win a Full Tilt cap? Howard Lederer, are you okay with that bet?

Friday, June 30, 2006

Grandpa Gates' GUI

Timing is everything. I had been thinking about writing this for some time before Bill Gates announced his retirement. If it had only been posted in time I could have speculated that the founder of Microsoft must have read it and run away in shame.

In the 1980's Bill Gates was the wonder kid who made the strange technology of computers easier for the masses to use. Windows has continued to advance in many ways, but in some ways it seems a quarter century out of date, the kind of software your Grandfather would use - or write. That's why I'm calling him Grandpa Gates, to remind him that he's not a wonder kid any more.

One thing I hate about Windows are the "wizards," which may have been magical software in the ancient times, but amount to dim-witted assistants today. Just do a search on your computer for all of the files named "wizard." For example, the sound on one of my computers hadn't been working for weeks, so I started a sound troubleshooting wizard. All it did was feed me a list of things that I should check. It did not check anything itself, it didn't scan my system, it gave me no information. It didn't even know if I had a soundcard, or drivers, or a speaker, or a CD drive. It had no idea what the problem was. The wizard had no magic.

A few days later I noticed the volume control on the taskbar and checked it. The sound was turned off! Apparently, a couple of months before I had become annoyed with some noisy software and turned the sound off, and forgot about it. This could also easily happen to someone whose spouse or children ever used their computer. But the point is that not only had the wizard failed to be magical, it had failed to live up to its 1980's dim-witted assistant standard. Checking the volume was not on its dim-witted list!

Another thing I hate about Windows is that it can't count to one. For example, I have an old computer that isn't used anymore. It has photos and other things that I'd like to back up. One day I turned it on and an error box appeared in the middle of the screen saying that a Registry error had been encountered and Windows would restart and fix the problem. I clicked OK, and the computer restarted and a box appeared on the screen saying that a Registry error had been encountered and Windows would restart and fix the problem. I clicked OK again and the computer restarted and a box appeared on the screen saying that a Registry error had been encountered and Windows would restart and fix the problem. Instead, I just said bad things about Grandpa Gates and shut down the computer.

If Windows could count then the first time the box popped up it would look at the count, see that it was zero, and know that this situation had never happened before. It would change the count to "one" and restart. When the box popped up again Grandpa's GUI would now see that it had counted to one and say, "Wait, I've tried this before."

That old computer didn't have an ethernet port. The next one did, and for two years every time I turned it on a balloon momentarily popped up saying that a network cable was unplugged. I just ignored it, but if Windows could count to "one" it would know that the number of times that a network had ever been present was zero. The number of times that there had ever been a cable plugged in was zero. Why did it have to warn me hundreds of times that a cable had become unplugged?

Finally, I bought a new computer that also had an ethernet port. Eagerly I plugged a cable into both computers and turned them both on. No magic happened. In desperation I turned to the network connection wizard, but its dim-witted assistant list contained no solutions. At one point it actually suggested copying the wizard onto a disk and putting it into the old computer. That is not going to happen, I have a network now.

Now I have a new computer with WiFi capability, too. Now I get three balloons popping up every time I turn it on. A network cable is unplugged, a network is unavailable, a wireless network is unavailable. Now it's getting annoying. First, because there are so many balloons every time I turn the computer on, and second, because I know that they're completely meaningless.

Sunday, May 07, 2006

Blogspot

Why does everyone run us around in circles?

I came across a random blog article that mentioned the immigration isssue, and the blogger said that a responder to a previous post pointed out to him that the U.S. "stole" California from Mexico.

I wanted to leave a comment pointing out the humorous facts that Mexico "stole" California from Spain in a war of independence, but that Spain did not steal the region from Native Americans as some people might think. Rather, Pope Alexander VI divided the New World between Spain and Portugal. Of course, God's representative on Earth has full authority to decide such matters, and if God did it then it can't be stealing, can it?

But Blogspot wouldn't let me leave a comment without logging in, and I thought it better to log in to my own site first and then go over there. But when I got to the site (called Treading Syrup) it wanted me to log in again. So I said, "forget it," and hit the back button, and had to log in again to get back to my site. Boo!

Sunday, April 30, 2006

Lost Series Questions

I don't read the online sites very often, and missed some episodes because I had to watch The Apprentice: Martha Stewart, so some of my questions may have already been answered.

Some things are being answered all of the time. For instance, I wondered why Hurley wound up in a mental institution. Then we learned that he blamed himself for the collapse of a balcony that killed a couple of people. So eventually everything will be answered, unless this goes the way of many series, and ratings start falling and the network weasels cancel the show.

I'm going to give my theory about the island later, because I'm sure I've figured out many things. Questions:

Charlie apparently took a seat near the front bathroom just before the crash. How did he wind up with the center section survivors?

We later learned there were survivors in the tail section of the plane. Will we later learn that there were also survivors in the front section (besides the pilot)?

How did Locke wind up in a wheelchair? In the earliest flashbacks he could walk.

Everyone else seems to have dark secrets. What are Jack's?

Hurley said the tail section clinical psychologist looked familiar. Was she a doctor at his mental institution? Or was she a patient? (I missed the very end of an episode where this may have been answered. The last I saw they were at the edge of a cliff.)

Those are my main questions. Later I'll give my history of the island.

Cherokee Casino of Oklahoma

So, here's what happened. After a string of winning poker sessions online (for play money) I thought it was time to try a live tournament. The nearest casino is the Cherokee Casino in Oklahoma and I saw that in just over a week, April 8th and 9th, they were having an "Oklahoma Johnny" Hale Tournament with the winner getting a $25000 seat into a World Poker Tour event.

After getting that information at the Cherokee Casino website I decided to go ahead and register for the tournament online. After entering name, address, and credit card information for the $500+$50 tournament, it said I would be picking up a Players Club card on the day of. This was the first I knew that I was joining the Players Club, but that was okay.

I checked my e-mail and found the following message (on March 30) from playersclub.tournament@cherokeecasino.com:

COPY AND PASTE:

Cherokee Casino and Resort

Your registration information has been submitted and a confirmation email will be sent to you once the internal registration process has been completed.

Transaction #:***

END COPY (I've blacked out the transaction number.)

My reading of that is that I wasn't yet registered for the tournament, and would recieve an e-mail when I was registered. A month later I'm still waiting for that e-mail.

For a couple of days I waited. I figured the "registration process" involved a person entering the data. Nothing happened. It was now a weekend and I figured nothing would happen until Monday. By Monday night nothing had happened and I started trying to check my credit card to see if it had been charged. There will soon be a message here about credit card companies, but the short story is that I later learned that my credit card had been charged on March 30. I suppose my chips went in front of an empty seat and were blinded away.

This isn't the first time I've had trouble getting information from Cherokee's website. Once they gave a time for a Scotty Nguyen tournament satellite that was wrong. Later I found a different time in a poker magazine, which was probably right. But the magazine and the website ought to get the time from the same source. And since magazine information has to be submitted early, and a website can be updated up to the last minute, then the website ought to be more accurate. But it wasn't.

I would urge everyone not to trust any information on the Oklahoma Cherokee Casino website (http://www.cherokeecasino.com/tulsa/cards_schedule_list.aspx). I would urge everyone not to register online. If you do either of these things then try to verify that the information you have is accurate. They are not committed to reaching users online.

By the way, I've now recieved a Cherokee Casino Magazine, which is sent to Players Club members, which apparently I am, although I've never picked up a Players Club card.

Cold Case Clues

Are we going to have to start going through the CBS series "Cold Case" frame by frame, looking for clues, the way we do with "Lost" on ABC? At the end of the episode "Death Penalty: Final Appeal," which aired on April 16, we were meant to read the newspaper headline in The Philadelphia Herald, "A. D. A. Danner Fired." Just below Danner's picture was another article headlined, "Another Bush Blunder," with an unreadable subtitle in which only the word "Republican(s)" stood out to me. That looks like a little message from the shows producers, or writers, or perhaps just the prop department.

If that's a message, are we supposed to read anything into the rest of the scene? Another headline is "Survival of the (Fittest)." On Danner's desk is a book with an unusual title. He puts his law degree from the University of Pennsylvania into a box. Do any of those have meaning?

The clues in "Lost" are better. Anyone know what DI 9FFTR731 means?

By the way, Kathryn Morris, the star of "Cold Case," appeared once on "Celebrity Poker Showdown." I think her poker nickname should be "Nine Lives." Get it? Kathryn Morris. Kat Morris. Morris the cat. From the 9Lives commercials. Well, I thought it was humorous.